Professional Dinner Meeting
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
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Contemporary
Forecasting and Forecasting Systems

 “Everything Happens When Somebody Forecasts Something.”

We forecast all the time, possibly we can benefit by knowing how others are doing it better using contemporary software and technology. A well-designed and well-integrated forecasting system provides improved:

Outline

This presentation is designed to introduce forecasting methods and forecasting systems to prepare you to better manage your professional or personal decisions. It also discusses statistically based forecasting methods and systems:

I. Patterns of demand: What patterns of demand are contemporary forecasting systems capable of modeling and forecasting? A forecasting system’s effectiveness is determined in large part by how well it systematically detects and models important patterns, relationships, and abnormalities. Contemporary automatic forecasting systems model patterns that were unmanageable 10 years ago. How do we manage stock outs, promotions, planned and unplanned events, discontinuous data, and very low demands?

II. What measures and methods are used to select the best models and forecasts? You might be surprised at the diversity and usefulness or uselessness of different forecast error measures.  

III. What are the important principles and characteristics of contemporary forecasting systems? I am surprised at the limitations of many forecasting systems.

IV. The final section provides important summaries and conclusions from several international forecasting competitions of the past 30 years.

Possibly, your forecasting methods or systems are obsolete, either way, you will benefit by attending this presentation and discussion. Please come prepared to share your successes or failures in forecasting and forecasting systems. My purpose is to make this presentation as intuitive and practically powerful as possible, two concepts that relate to the modeling concept of parsimony.

Who should attend?

Speaker Biography:

Stephen A. DeLurgio Sr., Ph.D., CFPIM, is Senior Outcomes Researcher at Children’s Mercy Hospital and Professor Emeritus of Operations Manage­ment (OM) at the Bloch School of UMKC. Prior to academe he was an electromechanical design and project engineer. He has a B.S. in M.E. (U. of Mo. at Rolla MUST) and an MBA and Ph.D. in Management Science (St. Louis Universi­ty). His many years of teaching, research, and consulting are in supply chain management, logistics management, inventory and forecasting systems, quantitative methods, forecasting methods, econometrics, production planning, inventory management, and scheduling. He is senior co-author with Carl Bhame of Forecasting Systems for Operations Management, Irwin Professional Publishing (1991), author of the 890 page Forecasting: Principles and Applications with Irwin/McGraw-Hill Publishing Company (1998). Co-author of Quantitative Models For Business Decisions,(1980) and author/coauthor of three chapters and associate editor of this 3rd edition of the Hand­book of Production and Inventory Control, McGraw-Hill, (1997). His publications have appeared in Journal of Production and Inventory Management, most recently 2010, Journal of the Operational Research Society, International Journal of Production Research, and other journals. He was a member of the APICS International Curriculum and Certification Council for five years, chaired, and was a member of the CPIM Inventory Management Committee for five and 11 years respectively, and was a member of the international CIRM Logistics Committee for 4 years. He is a member of the editorial committee of the Journal of Production and Inventory Management. He has won several teaching and research awards at UMKC. He has consulted in a variety of industries including the design of forecasting and inventory management systems for the Mayo Clinic, Sprint, ConAgra Refrigerated Foods, AT&T, Bayer, Payless Cashways, Burns and McDonnell Consulting Engineers, and other firms.

Location:

Holiday Inn Hotel & Suites Overland Park West

8787 Reeder Road, Overland Park, Ks.  66214

Direct: (913) 888-8440 Fax: (913) 888-3438

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Date & Schedule:

Wednesday, March 16^th 2011

6:00pm - 6:30pm     Registration

6:30pm - 7:00pm     Dinner & Networking

7:00pm - 7:45pm     Presentation

7:45pm - 8:00pm     Q&A  

Cost:

• $25 per person for APICS Members
• $30 per person for Non-APICS Members
• Students attend free